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以现代视角审视66年前我国计算机技术先驱的预见

A Reevaluation from a Contemporary Perspective: The Foresight of China’s Computer Pioneers Six Decades Ago

  • 摘要: 本文重新审视了中国计算机技术先驱范新弼先生于1959年发表于《科学通报》的《数字计算机的发展方向》。在信息技术历经翻天覆地变革的近70年后,本文旨在评估该文献的历史价值与当代意义。分析表明,范老对计算机发展的第一性原理−包括对可靠性、算力、存储、系统化及自动化的追求−展现了惊人的前瞻性,其核心思想至今仍指引着人工智能、云计算等前沿领域。同时,受限于当时技术条件和知识可得性,原文在具体技术路径(如硅基半导体主导地位)、范式认知(如软件与网络的作用)以及社会经济影响评估(如小型化与成本曲线)方面亦存在可以理解的时代局限性。本文重新审视的目的在于通过历史镜鉴揭示信息技术演进的内在逻辑,为面向算力网络与智能时代的技术战略与学术研究提供参考。

     

    Abstract: This article revisits “The Development Direction of Digital Computers”, published by Chinese computer pioneer Fan Xinbi in Chinese Science Bulletin in 1959. Nearly seventy years later, amid the disruptive transformation of information technology, we reassess its historical value and contemporary significance. Our analysis shows that Fan’s articulation of the first principles of computer development—reliability, computing power, storage, systematization, and automation—demonstrated striking foresight, with core ideas that continue to inform frontier areas such as artificial intelligence and cloud computing. At the same time, the work reflects understandable historical constraints: its view of technological trajectories (e.g., silicon-based semiconductor dominance), its paradigmatic scope (e.g., the role of software and networking), and its socio-economic assessments (e.g., miniaturization and cost curves). By situating Fan’s vision within today’s context, this study highlights the intrinsic logic of information technology evolution and offers insights for technology strategy and scholarly inquiry in the emerging era of computing power networks and intelligence.

     

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