高级检索

大型社会模拟器:开发、验证与应用

Large-Scale Social Simulators: Development, Validation, and Applications

  • 摘要: 随着大语言模型(large language models, LLMs)与生成式智能体技术快速发展,社会模拟正在从以手工规则为主的传统智能体建模,迈向以语义生成、情境交互与实验编排为特征的新阶段。与经典方法相比,基于LLMs的社会智能体在语言表达、情境理解、角色扮演与复杂行为生成方面具有显著优势,使大型社会模拟器开始具备更强的行为真实性、更丰富的交互机制以及更广阔的应用空间。大型社会模拟器的关键意义,已不再只是“构造一个可运行的虚拟社会”,而在于形成一个面向复杂社会系统的可开发、可验证、可应用的新型实验平台与软件系统。本文围绕这一变化,从技术演进、系统开发、可信验证、应用治理与未来发展5个方面展开分析,并以大型社会模拟器AgentSociety 为代表性案例,讨论其在政策预评估、舆论预推演、风险治理、城市治理与复杂社会系统研究中的潜在价值。本文认为,LLMs驱动的大型社会模拟器正在推动社会模拟从研究工具走向应用基础设施,并有望成为连接人工智能、社会科学与国家重大需求的重要技术底座。

     

    Abstract: With the rapid advancement of large language models and generative agent technologies, social simulation is shifting from traditional agent-based modeling driven by hand-crafted rules to a new paradigm characterized by semantic generation, contextual interaction, and experiment orchestration. Compared with classical approaches, LLMs-based agents exhibit clear advantages in language expression, contextual understanding, role-playing, and complex behavior generation. These capabilities enable large-scale social simulators to achieve higher behavioral realism, richer interaction mechanisms, and broader application potential. The significance of large-scale social simulators is therefore no longer limited to “constructing a runnable virtual society”, but lies in establishing a new type of experimental platform and software system for complex social systems that is developable, verifiable, and deployable. This article analyzes this transformation from five perspectives: technological evolution, system development, trustworthy validation, application and governance, and future directions. Using AgentSociety as a representative case, this article further discusses its potential value in policy pre-evaluation, opinion dynamics forecasting, risk governance, urban governance, and the study of complex social systems. This article argues that LLMs-driven large-scale social simulators are transforming social simulation from a research tool into application-level infrastructure, and are poised to become a key technological foundation bridging artificial intelligence, social science, and major societal needs.

     

/

返回文章
返回