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对未来20年智能体分化和演进的若干思考从算力与智能的角度

Some Thoughts on the Taxonomy and Evolutionary Dynamics of Agents from the Perspective of Computational Utility and Intelligence Level

  • 摘要: 费林分类法促进了对计算机系统结构的理解和设计,但对人工智能时代的计算机系统分类作用有限。当前人工智能发展进程处于一个重要的历史节点,一方面已经取得一定进展,一方面遇到规模定律难以持续等问题,未来人工智能发展路径还有很大的不确定性。为此,本文提出从算力与智能的角度构建智能体的分类学及演化动力学的设想。通过分类学对智能体进行审视,通过演化动力学对未来分类结果的分布的演变进行前瞻预见,以优化设计和前瞻规划我国人工智能发展路径。

     

    Abstract: Flynn’s taxonomy has significantly advanced our understanding and design of computer system architectures. However, its relevance to classifying computer systems in the era of artificial intelligence (AI) is limited. Currently, AI stands at a critical historical juncture: on one hand, it has achieved considerable progress; on the other hand, it faces challenges such as the unsustainable continuation of scaling laws. The future development path of AI remains highly uncertain. To address these issues, this article proposes constructing a taxonomy and evolutionary dynamics for computer systems from the perspective of computational utility and intelligence. The taxonomy aims to provide a systematic review of agents, while the evolutionary dynamics seeks to offer forward-looking insights into the future evolution of system distributions derived from this classification. By integrating both taxonomy and evolutionary dynamics, this approach aims to optimize and strategically plan the development pathway of AI in China.

     

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