A Reevaluation from a Contemporary Perspective: The Foresight of China’s Computer Pioneers Six Decades Ago

This article revisits “The Development Direction of Digital Computers”, published by Chinese computer pioneer Fan Xinbi in Chinese Science Bulletin in 1959. Nearly seventy years later, amid the disruptive transformation of information technology, we reassess its historical value and contemporary significance. Our analysis shows that Fan’s articulation of the first principles of computer development—reliability, computing power, storage, systematization, and automation—demonstrated striking foresight, with core ideas that continue to inform frontier areas such as artificial intelligence and cloud computing. At the same time, the work reflects understandable historical constraints: its view of technological trajectories (e.g., silicon-based semiconductor dominance), its paradigmatic scope (e.g., the role of software and networking), and its socio-economic assessments (e.g., miniaturization and cost curves). By situating Fan’s vision within today’s context, this study highlights the intrinsic logic of information technology evolution and offers insights for technology strategy and scholarly inquiry in the emerging era of computing power networks and intelligence.